Baseball's Relentless Math

When the Red Sox blew a 6-0 lead Monday and lost 12-9 to the hapless Kansas City Royals, they missed a chance to close to with three games of the Yankees in the lost column. By doing this, they submitted themselves to what I call Baseball's Relentless Math. On Tuesday morning, the top two positions in the American League East were

New York 95-56

Boston 89-60

In terms of catching the Yankees and winning the AL East, the Red Sox put themselves in an untenable position. Why? A baseball season is 162 games long, meaning that the Yankees have 11 games left to play and the Red Sox 13. The Yankees have won 63% of their games to date; if they win 63% of the remaining games they will go 7-4 and finish with a record of 102-60. For the Red Sox to simply tie them, they'd have to win all thirteen of their remaining games. If the Yankees go 6-5, the Red Sox must go 12-1; if the Yankees play below .500 ball and go 5-6, the Red Sox still have to win eleven of their thirteen games. In other words, the Yankees must play worse than than they have all season to date while the Sox must be dramatically better.

Moreover, with eleven games left, the Yankees have fewer opportunities to lose than the Red Sox. In the unlikely event that the Yankees lose the rest of their games, the Red Sox would still have to win six of theirs to even tie the Yankees. And as I say, the most probable scenario is that the Yankees will win seven and lose four. Which is why in the heat of a pennant race you can't afford to lose games in which you held leads of 6-0, 8-2, and 9-5, especially when the pitcher you're going up against the next day is Zach Greinke, the American League's top starter this year. (Note: The Sox lost to Greinke while the Yankees beat the Angels, reducing the margin for error by a further two games.)

It is true that teams have collapsed before and that -- despite Monday's debacle -- the Red Sox are currently playing better ball than the Yankees. But probably not enough better in a situation that has no margin for error. The Red Sox will still make the postseason as the wild card team. It's time for manager Terry francona to line up the pitching rotation for the playoffs, rest starting position players, and decide which relief pitchers he can trust...

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