If you are an Obama supporter, you're likely to point out that your candidate cut deeply into what were once 20 point margins, and that he still holds a commanding lead of about 100 in the delegate count. The fact remains, however, that he missed a chance to exert strong pressure on Clinton to end her campaign. He now faces at least six more weeks of campaigning until the Pennsylvania primary, where Clinton holds a lead of from anywhere from 6 to 14 points. Moreover, demographically Pennsylvania is one of the oldest states in the country, which plays to Clinton's strength among voters aged 50 and over.
In my mind, picking a candidate on the basis of "electability" is a sucker's game: Anything can happen between now and the first Tuesday in November to change assumptions made today. However, it's going to become an item of discussion regardless of what I think. You can anticipate arguments from the Clinton and Obama camps along the following lines.
Clinton will argue that the electorate remains split into red and blue states. She will argue that no Democrat can be elected president without carrying the states John Kerry carried in 2004, plus Ohio. She will point out that she won primaries in the vital states of California, Michigan, New Jersey and New York, not to mention Ohio. Pennsylvania, because of its demographics, is hers to lose, and Kerry barely carried it in 2004. Because of the strength she's shown in the Midwest, she is the candidate who can hold the Kerry electoral base, add Ohio, and be elected president.
Obama will spin the debate in a different direction. The electorate is closer to purple than red and blue, he will posit, and this election offers a historic opportunity to Democrats if they can legitimately offer a change in the way we conduct politics. He'll remind us that John McCain is more Catholic than the pope when it comes to an Iraq war that the public has turned against; that with the country in or on the brink of recession, Republicans offer a candidate who admits that he "doesn't really understand economics;" and whose solution to the health care access crisis is to continue letting the market work its wondrous magic. This sets the stage for a Democrat to win big, and Obama is the candidate who has shown strength in states like Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, and Missouri -- states that Bush won narrowly or that Democrats didn't dare think of winning until he (Obama) demonstrated the possibilities.
What the electability debate comes down to is whose reading of the political landscape you agree with and whether you think America wants a new politics enough to elect an African-American president. I will say this: I don't think Hillary Clinton can overcome her disapproval ratings enough to win big, no matter how favorable the terrain. She's simply not a good enough campaigner. Obama has the better chance of a big win, but he must figure out a way to finesse the preparedness argument that Clinton successfully raised in Ohio. As for Obama's race, let's hope that the better angels prevail.
Clinton will argue that the electorate remains split into red and blue states. She will argue that no Democrat can be elected president without carrying the states John Kerry carried in 2004, plus Ohio. She will point out that she won primaries in the vital states of California, Michigan, New Jersey and New York, not to mention Ohio. Pennsylvania, because of its demographics, is hers to lose, and Kerry barely carried it in 2004. Because of the strength she's shown in the Midwest, she is the candidate who can hold the Kerry electoral base, add Ohio, and be elected president.
Obama will spin the debate in a different direction. The electorate is closer to purple than red and blue, he will posit, and this election offers a historic opportunity to Democrats if they can legitimately offer a change in the way we conduct politics. He'll remind us that John McCain is more Catholic than the pope when it comes to an Iraq war that the public has turned against; that with the country in or on the brink of recession, Republicans offer a candidate who admits that he "doesn't really understand economics;" and whose solution to the health care access crisis is to continue letting the market work its wondrous magic. This sets the stage for a Democrat to win big, and Obama is the candidate who has shown strength in states like Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, and Missouri -- states that Bush won narrowly or that Democrats didn't dare think of winning until he (Obama) demonstrated the possibilities.
What the electability debate comes down to is whose reading of the political landscape you agree with and whether you think America wants a new politics enough to elect an African-American president. I will say this: I don't think Hillary Clinton can overcome her disapproval ratings enough to win big, no matter how favorable the terrain. She's simply not a good enough campaigner. Obama has the better chance of a big win, but he must figure out a way to finesse the preparedness argument that Clinton successfully raised in Ohio. As for Obama's race, let's hope that the better angels prevail.
Posts
